Hot Air Predictions

Travel & dodgy internet connections have kept me from blogging... But they haven't kept me from the election and, unfortunately, from right-wingers furiously spinning an alternate reality where McCain is on course for victory.

Jon Swift tells all with his posts on Why John McCain will win and hidden-Obama-horror-stories.

To add to the madness, I wanted to bring you this poll from Michelle Malin's Hot Air, showing how its readers think the election is going to break:-


79% think McCain will be the next POTUS. We'll find out for sure soon enough - although I'm not sure many will share this level of Hot Air optimism:-

The GOP will gain the lead in house.
I told you so.
I’m betting they will on Intrade.com
I will make money.
Period.
Mcguyver on October 30, 2008 at 2:19 PM

Or this:

The deal is that republicans are voting down the line republican.
We are coming out in large droves to prevent an Obama presidency.
That means republicans can gain in the House, Senate, and win the White House.
jencab on October 30, 2008 at 2:21 PM

And especially this from stonemeister:

McCain may really be up by 20% or more... The “hang-up” percentage, or people who refuse to be polled, is over 85%, which is historically high. This means there is no way to assume the sample is statistically valid. It all depends on the make-up of the 85%. So we have to figure out the motives for the hang-ups. Now we’re not talking probability and statistics, by forensic psychology... Why would anyone not want to participate in a telephone poll?

In case you are wondering, it's because people might feel guilty saying "McCain" for various reasons (*cough* race), or - always my favorite - real working people (Republicans!) are too busy for polls...

That probably accounts for the vast majority of those hang-ups. How do those poll results look to you now? Instead of Obama ahead by 1 to 3%, he might really be behind by 20-30%!

Riiight.

And so to Tuesday. Are the polls accurate? Are there really more Democrats than Republicans? Is America really ready for a black president, or will millions of Americans get into those booths and say "not quite yet"? Who would blame them if they did just that, and voted for McCain instead of Obama? After all, Obama just might be an arab muslim socialist terrorist. We can't be entirely sure he isn't, right?

I mean, at least with McCain/Palin, you know exactly what you're gonna get, right? I mean, we've had people like them in charge for the past eight years. So what could possibly go wrong!?